This article was originally published on Opto – Invest in the Next Big Idea.
Catalysts for Peloton’s plunging share price are well documented – a fault with the Peloton Tread led to a tragic accident, followed by a clumsy response from Peloton, leading to a PR disaster and eventual product recall. The hit to Peloton’s share price – a near 30% decline – was hefty.
However, the resulting sell-off looks to have opened up a buying opportunity for the company. As a result, Peloton’s share price looks like it could be well-positioned to take advantage of the growing corporate wellness market.
What’s the outlook for Peloton’s share price?
Peloton has benefited from the coronavirus pandemic driving up demand for at-home exercise. In Peloton’s fiscal third-quarter earnings, gross profit came in at $444.9m, up 81% year-on-year. Revenue came in at $1.26bn for the quarter, up 141% from the same period last year.
Subscription gross profit came in at $154.5m in the quarter, up 172% year-on-year, reflecting a boom in app downloads and closed gyms. Promisingly, net losses shrank to $8.6m, down from the $55.6m seen in the same period last year. Workouts on its Connected Fitness and Digital platforms jumped to 171 million, up from 48 million workouts in the same period last year.
Despite the strong results, Peloton expects the impact of recalled treadmills and stalled the release of a cheaper model to reduce fourth-quarter sales by $165m, guiding for a total haul of $915m.
Still, the strong results have given some analysts confidence that Peloton’s share price future is bright. In June, Loop Capital started coverage of Peloton, with analyst Daniel Adam pinning a $140 price target on the stock and telling investors that the product recall was weighing more on Peloton’s share price than it really should.
“PTON shares are down ~40% from the January highs, in large part due to the company’s voluntary recalls of the Tread and Tread+ and negative press around the safety of those products. Although we fully expect some impact from the recalls, we believe the impact will be short-lived and that management’s guidance likely bakes in an excessive amount of conservatism,” wrote Adam in a note to investors.
The analyst also noted that Peloton had delivered “upside at the midpoint of guidance each and every quarter, with an average quarterly revenue beat of +11%”.
Credit Suisse which had initiated coverage on Peloton with an outperform rating in April, tweaked its target in May, moving from $164 to $152 – a still bullish 21.6% upside on Tuesday’s close. Analysts tracking Peloton’s share price on Yahoo Finance, say the stock carries an average $130 price target – a more muted 4% upside on Tuesday’s close.
Peloton targets corporate wellness trend
Writing for Opto, Global X research analyst Andrew Little argues that the total addressable market for fitness is now bigger than ever, driven by an expansion in at-home fitness. Little pointed to a TD Ameritrade survey that showed 87% of Americans plan to continue working out at home after the pandemic, while in a separate survey 59% said they didn’t plan to return to the gym.
“In our view, the fitness industry will become a hybrid of traditional brick-and-mortar and at-home models. We expect that this will partially be consumer-driven as convenience, reduced health risks, and synergies with disruptive technologies and consumer trends like wearables reinforce the staying power of at-home fitness,” Little wrote.
Whereas before the pandemic, companies would offer staff discounts at bricks and mortar gyms, now they are offering discounts for at-home online fitness, with Peloton looking for a piece of the action.
Peloton’s new Corporate Wellness platform will provide employees of participating businesses discounted Digital and All Access memberships, among other benefits. Launched at the end of June, the service is available in the US, UK, Canada and Germany, with Australia being added later in the year. Companies already signed up to the service include Wayfair [W], Samsung  and Sky.
“The new service is the natural extension for us to be able to scale our offering,” William Lynch, Peloton’s president, said in a statement. “Together with our Corporate Wellness partners, we’re now able to share the experience with millions more, while also driving stronger culture and community within the workplace.”
Peloton’s bumper growth due to the pandemic raises the obvious question: what happens when restrictions are lifted and office workers return to their place of work? How Peloton’s corporate platform answers that question, could be key in driving Peloton’s share price growth over the next few years.
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The investment universe is changing beyond all recognition, and with a thematic focus, investors can capitalise on this wholesale disruption. From Genomics to Artificial Intelligence, disruptive innovation empowers companies to displace industry incumbents, and secure majority market share. Opto exists to identify those businesses, and help investors to invest in the next big idea.